US UA SECURITY DIALOGUE VII

Taking New Measure of Russia’s ‘Near Abroad’:
Assessing Security Challenges Facing the ‘Frontline States’

February 25, 2015

Venue: 1777 F Street NW, Washington DC 20006 [1st Floor Conference Room]

8:30 am – 9:00 am — Registration

9:00 am – 9: 25 am — Word of Welcome:

• [US]: Rep. Sander Levin (D-MI)
• [UA]: HE Valeriy Chaly [Ambassador of Ukraine to the United States]

9:25 am – 9:55 am — The First Question: Which States Constitute RU’s ‘Near Aboard’? Should They Be Worried?

Chair:

• William Taylor [United States Institute of Peace]

Remarks:

• Stephen Blank [American Foreign Policy Council]

9:55 am – 11:15 am — Panel I [Extended Discussion] --- The 'Hybrid War in Ukraine': Sampling of a 'Frontline State' Future?

Chair:

• John Herbst [Atlantic Council]

Lead Remarks:

• Andriy Parubiy [Vice Speaker of the Rada of Ukraine; Fmr. Head of the UA National Security & Defense Council]

Discussants:

• Glen Howard [Jamestown Foundation]
• Ariel Cohen [Atlantic Council; Institute for the Analysis of Global Security]
• Derek Fraser [University of Victoria]

11:15 am – 12:30 pm — Focus Session II: Assessing Threat Risks to the 'Traditional Near Abroad' [GUAM Members; the Baltic States; Central Asia & Belarus]

Chair:

• William Courtney [RAND Corporation]

Panelists:

• Temuri Yakobashvili [German Marshall Fund]
• Vlad Spanu [Moldova Foundation]
• Marius Laurinavicius [Center For European Policy Analysis]
• Paul Goble [Windows on Eurasia]

Suggested Topics:

• Moldova, Georgia & Azerbaijan: Will Frozen Conflicts Remain Frozen?
• The Baltic States: Any Grounds for Fearing a 'Sudeten Russian' Card?
• Central Asia & Belarus: Is Anyone Watching for 'Bear-tracks'?

12:30 pm – 1:00 pm — Lunch Break [Press Interviews]

1:00 pm – 1:30 pm — Focus Session II: Might the United States Become a ‘Frontline State’?

Chair:

• Herman Pirchner [American Foreign Policy Council]

Presenter:

• Michael Carpenter [Dep. Asst. Secretary of Defense/EEA][INVITED]

1:30 pm – 2:00 pm — Focus Session III: Is Canada on the ‘Frontline’ in the Arctic?

Chair:

• William Miller [Woodrow Wilson International Center]

Presenter:

• James Bezan [Member of Canadian Parliament/NDC]

2:00 pm – 3:15 pm — Focus Session IV: Assessing Risks to the 'Recent Additional Near Abroad' [Nordic Neutrals; Visegrad Countries; Black Sea Nations]

Chair:

• David Kramer [McCain Institute]

Panelists:

• Henryk Lax [MP Emeritus/Finnish Parliament-European Parliament]
• Margarita Assemova [Jamestown Foundation]
• Aurel Braun [University of Toronto]
• Hüseyin Oylupinar [Harvard University]

Suggested Topics:

• Scandinavian 'Neutral States' – An Umbrella Too Short?
• Do the Visegrad States Face a ‘Iskander Intimidation Factor’ in Kaliningrad?
• Do the Black Sea Nations Face a ‘Iskander Intimidation Factor’ in Crimea?

3:15 pm – 3:45 pm — Highlight IRU ‘Information Ops’ in the Old & New ‘Near Abroard

Chair:

• Adrian Karmazyn [US-Ukraine Foundation; Former VOA UA Desk Chief]

Presenter:

• Ostap Kryvdyk [Senior Advisor to the UA Rada Vice Speaker; Former Information Officer of the UA Nat. Sec. & Defense Council]]

3:45 pm – 4:00 pm — A Final Word

• Sen. Robert Portman [R-OH] [Senate Ukraine Caucus Co-Chair]

5:00 pm – 7:30 pm — Evening Reception: American Foreign Policy Council

Host:

• The US-UA Security Dialogue VII Organizing Committee

Sponsors:

• American Foreign Policy Council
• Center for US-Ukrainian Relations
• Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation
• US-Ukraine Foundation